Prediction markets and odds betting websites have long been used to help ordinary individuals win money by accurately predicting the outcomes of major live sporting events like the World Cup and the Super Bowl.
More recently, however, the two largest prediction markets in the game – Kalshi and Polymarket – have expanded their odds betting platforms to allow reality TV fans to bet on the outcomes of pre-recorded programs like “Survivor,” “The Bachelorette” and “Top Chef” amongst others.
The difference between betting on who will win the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup versus who will win the currently-airing 50th season of “Survivor,” however, is that there are a plethora of people – from crew and contestants to their immediate family members (and basically the entirety of Reddit) – who know, without a shadow of doubt, the answer to the latter.
With the largest cast, press contingency and on-location crew in the show’s 26-year history, keeping the results of “Survivor 50” under wraps since filming concluded last summer has been a monumental, if not entirely effective, feat for CBS and the longrunning reality competition series.
While the introduction of reality TV odds betting could hypothetically allow the show’s cast and crew to rake in some extra cash with surefire bets about who’s going home each week, everyday “Survivor” fans are less concerned with potential “insider trading” and more upset with the fact that sites like Kalshi and Polymarket have effectively spoiled the elimination order for the entirety of the milestone golden anniversary season.
(Don’t worry though, we won’t be spoiling the results of any upcoming episodes here.)
‘Survivor 50’ Betting Markets Predicted Mike White’s Elimination with 98% Accuracy
CBSWhile there’s no definitive proof that any one person involved in the creation of “Survivor 50” has been cashing in on their insider information, it’s clear from previous episodes’ bets that someone on set – be they cast or crew – spilled the beans at some point in the eight months since filming wrapped.
For example, ahead of last week’s episode of “Survivor,” a Kalshi market gave castaway Mike White 98 percent odds of being voted off the island.
Even if White had been in a precarious position on his tribe before the episode, which he was not, there were still 19 other players in the game who could have gone home instead, making the astronomical odds a clear indication that White’s elimination had been leaked ahead of time.
CBSThe odds betting trend similarly (and accurately) predicated the elimination of Quintavius “Q” Burdette the week before, with a Kalshi market once again placing the contestant at 98 percent chance of being voted off.
While the winner of “Survivor 50” won’t be officially revealed until the season’s live finale in Los Angeles on May 20, the votes to determine the “Sole Survivor” were cast on-location in Fiji last summer. That information, too, seems to have been leaked, with one of the season’s 17 remaining castaways listed as an 86 percent favorite to win on Kalshi, in a market with a total trade volume of $9.5 million.
Kalshi Says There’s No ‘Definitive Proof’ of Insider ‘Survivor’ Trading
CBSDiehard “Survivor” fans, including former contestants, are understandably outraged about the highly-anticipated season being spoiled.
Liz Wilcox, who competed on Season 46 of “Survivor” in 2024, told the New York Times that the show’s contestants are “incredibly serious” about preventing spoilers.
“In fact, one of the players [on Season 46] threatened to sue the other players if there was a leak,” Wilcox added.
That being said, it wouldn’t be the first time a “Survivor” season has been spoiled for the fans. It’s actually an incredibly common trend in the reality TV space, and one that stands to become even more prevalent now that there’s a market-driven financial incentive for the cast and crew of future seasons to leak behind-the-scenes secrets.
Regardless, fans who’ve stumbled upon the leaks have been left devastated as a result.
“It’s ruining ‘Survivor’ entirely for the fan base,” wrote one fan on TikTok, while another added, “It should not be legal to gamble on events that already happened.”
Speaking of the legality of the leaks, it’s true that extensive nondisclosure agreements signed by the entirety of the cast and crew, alongside their immediate family members, should have prevented such information from being leaked to the general public.
However, it’s nearly impossible to keep tabs on where leaks might be coming from when it takes hundreds of people to create any given season of “Survivor.”
Following outcry from “Survivor” fans across the country, Kalshi said in a statement earlier this month that it was investigating the situation, but had yet to find any “definitive evidence” of insider trading on “Survivor” markets.
So Aubrey wins it