Netflix has already canceled 18 shows in 2026, and a new analysis is predicting which undecided originals could be next.
Canada Sports Betting analyzed 52 Netflix originals, including 18 canceled shows, 26 renewed titles, and seven still waiting for a verdict.
The platform, which typically analyzes odds for sports, elections and financial markets, used four data points to calculate each show’s implied probability of cancellation.
The analysis considered how long Netflix has remained silent, each show’s performance on the streamer’s Global Top 10 chart, Rotten Tomatoes and IMDb scores, and current IMDb popularity. The data was collected on June 30.
The results put “How to Get to Heaven From Belfast” in the most danger, while the signs look much better for “I Will Find You,” “Man on Fire” and “Teach You a Lesson.”
‘How to Get to Heaven From Belfast’ Faces the Highest Cancellation Odds
“How to Get to Heaven From Belfast” received a 79.33% implied probability of cancellation, the highest of any undecided show included in the analysis.
The comedy drama premiered on February 12, leaving it without a decision from Netflix for 138 days as of June 30. It also failed to appear in the streamer’s Global Top 10.
The lack of a chart presence stands in contrast to its reviews. Critics gave the series a 95% score on Rotten Tomatoes, while its audience score sits at 79%.
According to the analysis, the long silence and lack of Global Top 10 performance outweigh those strong reviews.
“Netflix does not wait anymore. The first 28 days decide almost everything,” a Canada Sports Betting data analyst said.
“Boots doubled its audience and still got cut. What matters is month one, not the reviews. If a show is not in the Top 10 within a week of launch, the decision is probably already made.”
‘Beef’ Season 2 Also Lands Among the Netflix Shows at Risk
“Beef” had an implied cancellation probability of 44.19% despite the success of its first season.
Season 1 won eight Emmy Awards, but the second installment, starring Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan, reportedly lost 58% of the opening audience compared to the show’s debut season.
Season 2 drew 2.4 million views during its first week and remained on Netflix’s English-language chart for two weeks. The series also holds an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score.
Netflix had gone 76 days without announcing the show’s future when the data was collected.
“The Witness” also faces an uncertain future, with a 34.56% implied probability of cancellation. The crime drama reached No. 1 globally during its second week with 10.1 million views, but viewership dropped 72% to 2.8 million the following week.
The show received a perfect 100% score from critics on Rotten Tomatoes but only 49% from viewers.
‘I Will Find You’ and ‘Man on Fire’ Have Better Renewal Odds
The analysis found much stronger signs for “I Will Find You,” which received a 29.65% implied probability of cancellation.
The crime drama was only 12 days old when the data was collected and ranked as the No. 1 most popular title on IMDb. It also reached the top of Netflix’s global chart.
“Man on Fire” had a slightly lower cancellation probability of 28.28%.
Despite earning only 58% from critics on Rotten Tomatoes, the action drama spent seven weeks in Netflix’s Global Top 10, including two weeks at No. 1. The analysis found that it had the longest sustained chart run of any undecided show in 2026.
“Teach You a Lesson” appears to be in the strongest position of all, with an implied cancellation probability of 25.99%.
The Korean action drama has a 94% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and an 8.5 rating on IMDb. It also spent three weeks at No. 1 on Netflix’s non-English chart and recorded 39.3 million views.
Netflix Has Already Canceled 18 Shows in 2026
The latest predictions come after Netflix continued cutting shows in June.
“Building the Band” and “The Boroughs” both ended after one season. The cancellation of “The Boroughs” drew particular attention because critics gave the series a 96% score on Rotten Tomatoes.
ScreenRant named it one of the year’s most surprising cancellations.
“While many factors might have contributed to its cancellation, The Boroughs seems like the perfect example of how Netflix’s increasingly unforgiving approach to greenlighting projects based on complex parameters is arguably harming streaming,” the outlet wrote.
Other 2026 cancellations include “The Abandons,” “Terminator Zero,” “The Vince Staples Show,” “Pop The Balloon LIVE,” “Selling the City,” “With Love, Meghan,” “Alice in Borderland,” “Class,” “Miss Governor,” “Strip Law,” “What’s in the Box?” and “F1: The Academy.”
Netflix has also handed out several renewals. “Funny AF With Kevin Hart,” “The Four Seasons” and “House of Guinness” will return, while “Devil May Cry” and “A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder” will conclude with their third and final seasons.
