The 83rd Golden Globe Awards arrive at a crucial point in awards season, just as the industry’s final campaigning winds down and Oscar nomination voting begins. Golden Globes voting closed January 3, and comedian Nikki Glaser will host the ceremony live from the Beverly Hilton on Sunday, January 11. The show airs at 8:00 p.m. ET on CBS and will also stream on Paramount+.
While the Golden Globes don’t always predict the Academy Awards, they remain one of the first major stops of the season for both film and television — and this year’s winner forecasts highlight a mix of clear favorites and categories that still look unsettled.
Golden Globes 2026 Best Film Odds Favor ‘One Battle After Another’ in Comedy/Musical
In Best Film – Comedy/Musical, “One Battle After Another” enters as the dominant front-runner.
Current projections from The Action Network place the film around 93% to win in this category, while expert and editor forecasts on Gold Derby sit closer to 95%. That makes this one of the most lopsided races on the board, with “One Battle After Another” positioned as the movie to beat.
Best Film – Drama: It’s a Race Between ‘Sinners’ and ‘Hamnet’
Best Film – Drama remains far more competitive.
“Sinners” held the favorite position for most of the fall, but “Hamnet” gained significant momentum after its December release and strong critical response. Gold Derby predictions currently lean toward “Sinners,” with experts and editors backing it at 67%.
Meanwhile, “Hamnet” still appears very much alive as the most realistic challenger. The remaining nominees — “It Was Just an Accident,” “The Secret Agent,” and “Sentimental Value” — appear positioned as longer shots, despite strong reviews.
Golden Globes 2026 Best Actress Odds Split the Year’s Two Biggest Performances
The Golden Globes’ split categories continue to shape the acting races by keeping top contenders from competing head-to-head.
In Best Actress – Comedy/Musical, Rose Byrne appears to hold the advantage. The Action Network forecasts place her in the mid-70% range, while Gold Derby’s consensus lists Byrne closer to 88%, giving her one of the strongest projected paths to a win on the night.
In Best Actress – Drama, Jessie Buckley stands out as the category leader. Projections put Buckley north of 90%. Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”) sits behind as the next-most viable option, but at a low percentage.
Best Actor Races Enter With Favorites — and One Very Tight Category
The Best Actor categories reflect two different storylines.
In Best Actor – Drama, forecasts put Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) in front at about 72%, with Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”) behind at roughly 25%.
In Best Actor – Comedy/Musical, the category features two names at the center of the broader awards season discussion: Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”).
Chalamet holds the edge, sitting in the 80% range in current projections. DiCaprio’s numbers remain notably lower at around 11% in the forecast picture.
Supporting Categories Could Produce Golden Globes 2026’s Biggest Surprises
Some of the most unpredictable races appear in the supporting categories.
In Best Supporting Actress, the projections got a little closer after Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) won at the Critics’ Choice Awards. Forecasts place Madigan near 50%, while Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) sits around 30%.
In Best Supporting Actor, no single nominee holds a commanding lead.
Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”) remains a key name in the mix, while Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”) picked up additional attention after his Critics Choice win. “One Battle After Another” also fields two contenders in Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Golden Globes 2026 TV Odds Put ‘The Pitt’ in Front, With ‘Pluribus’ Lurking
On the television side, Best TV Drama enters with “The Pitt” as the clear forecast leader. The show sits at -425, which translates to roughly an 81% implied probability.
Still, drama categories can shift quickly at a Globes ceremony, particularly when the voting body is different from the Emmys. “Pluribus” stands out as an intriguing challenger at +1300, while “Severance” sits at +1000 — especially notable after winning eight Emmys out of 27 nominations while missing the top drama prize.
Best TV Comedy Strongly Favors ‘The Studio’
In Best TV Comedy, “The Studio” enters as the overwhelming favorite following its historic Emmy night.
Forecasts place “The Studio” around 89%, making it one of the strongest projected winners across any major category. If there is an upset attempt, the longstanding favorites “Abbott Elementary” and “Only Murders in the Building” remain the most often mentioned alternatives.
Seth Rogen Leads the Comedy Actor Forecast, With Jeremy Allen White Far Behind
Comedy acting forecasts show Seth Rogen with a clear path.
Rogen sits at approximately 86% to win Best Lead Actor in a TV Comedy, tied closely to “The Studio’s” overall strength. Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) remains the standout long shot at +2300, despite having previously won this Golden Globe category for the first three seasons of the show.
