The race for the 2026 Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards) is officially heating up, and the odds are beginning to tell a compelling story. With historic milestones on the line and tight battles across both film and television categories, this year’s ceremony, which is being broadcast on Netflix, could deliver major surprises. From potential record-breaking wins to breakout performances poised to shock the industry, here’s a look at the latest odds and our final winner predictions heading into the Actor Awards 2026.
Film Categories
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
- “Frankenstein” – 0.4%
- “Hamnet” – 0.2%
- “Marty Supreme” – 0.2%
- “One Battle After Another” – 24.3%
- “Sinners” – 75%
Our prediction: “Sinners.” Those odds are too high from Gold Derby to think this will go any other way.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
- Timothée Chalamet – “Marty Supreme” – 55.1%
- Leonardo DiCaprio – “One Battle After Another” – 3.6%
- Ethan Hawke – “Blue Moon” – 10.5%
- Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners” – 30.2%
- Jesse Plemons – “Bugonia” – 0.5%
Our prediction: Timothée Chalamet has been winning all the awards for this role, and I think it’ll continue for the Actor Awards.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
- Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet” – 81.6%
- Rose Byrne – “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” – 16.8%
- Kate Hudson – “Song Sung Blue” – 1.3%
- Chase Infiniti – “One Battle After Another” – 0.1%
- Emma Stone – “Bugonia” – 0.3%
Our prediction: Like Timothee, Jessie Buckley has been winning everything this awards season. With those odds, I think she’ll be taking home the award tonight.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
- Odessa A’zion – “Marty Supreme” – 0.2%
- Ariana Grande – “Wicked: For Good” – 0.9%
- Amy Madigan – “Weapons” – 58.9%
- Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners” – 14%
- Teyana Taylor – “One Battle After Another” – 25.9%
Our prediction: Teyana Taylor has been having some success this awards season, and I think she gets a win tonight.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
- Miles Caton – “Sinners” – 6%
- Benicio del Toro – “One Battle After Another” – 26.5%
- Jacob Elordi – “Frankenstein” – 18.4%
- Paul Mescal – “Hamnet” – 0.8%
- Sean Penn – “One Battle After Another” – 48.2%
Our prediction: Sean Penn nailed his performance in “One Battle After Another” and is deserving of the Actor Award.
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
- “F1” – 13.2%
- “Frankenstein” – 0.1%
- “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” – 80.4%
- “One Battle After Another” – 4%
- “Sinners” – 2.3%
Our prediction: Tom Cruise does the stunts himself, so give him the award!
Television Categories
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
- “The Diplomat” – 0.3%
- “Landman” – 0.2%
- “The Pitt” – 96.8%
- “Severance” – 0.6%
- “The White Lotus” – 2.1%
Our prediction: “The Pitt” seems like a shoo-in to win, especially with those odds. I don’t see this award going to anyone else.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
- Sterling K. Brown – “Paradise” – 0.4%
- Billy Crudup – “The Morning Show” – 0.3%
- Walton Goggins – “The White Lotus” – 0.3%
- Gary Oldman – “Slow Horses” – 0.6%
- Noah Wyle – “The Pitt” – 98.3%
Our prediction: Noah Wyle has won an Emmy and Golden Globe for this role, so it seems fitting he’ll win tonight.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
- Britt Lower – “Severance” – 5%
- Parker Posey – “The White Lotus” – 0.7%
- Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” – 2%
- Rhea Seehorn – “Pluribus” – 92.1%
- Aimee Lou Wood – “The White Lotus” – 0.2%
Our prediction: Rhea Seehorn is dynamic in this role and should take home the win tonight.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
- “Abbott Elementary” – 0.6%
- “The Bear” – 0.1%
- “Hacks” – 0.1%
- “Only Murders in the Building” – 0.6%
- “The Studio” – 98.6%
Our prediction: “The Studio” was a breakout success and should bring home the Acor Award tonight.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
- Ike Barinholtz – “The Studio” 0%
- Adam Brody – “Nobody Wants This” – 0.5%
- Ted Danson – “A Man on the Inside” – 0.1%
- Seth Rogen – “The Studio” – 96%
- Martin Short – “Only Murders in the Building” – 3.3%
Our prediction: Seth Rogen is hilarious and incredibly amusing, so give him the award!
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
- Kathryn Hahn – “The Studio” – 0.1%
- Catherine O’Hara – “The Studio” – 87.1%
- Jenna Ortega – “Wednesday” – 0%
- Jean Smart – “Hacks” – 12.5%
- Kristen Wiig – “Palm Royale” – 0.3%
Our prediction: I’ll have my Kleenex ready for this one, but Catherine O’Hara should win this one, and the emotions will be riding high.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
- Jason Bateman – “Black Rabbit” – 0.7%
- Owen Cooper – “Adolescence” – 85.3%
- Stephen Graham – “Adolescence” – 13.6%
- Charlie Hunnam – “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” – 0%
- Matthew Rhys – “The Beast in Me” – 0.3%
Our prediction: This was a very heartbreaking performance from Stephen Graham in “Adolescence.” He is very worthy of the award.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
- Claire Danes – “The Beast in Me” – 0.2%
- Erin Doherty – “Adolescence” – 79.3%
- Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault” – 14.4%
- Christine Tremarco – “Adolescence” – 0%
- Michelle Williams – “Dying for Sex” – 6.1%
Our prediction: It looks like “Adolescence” will be heading up to the stage a lot tonight.
TV Stunt Ensemble
- “Andor” – 93.3%
- “Stranger Things” – 5.3%
- “Squid Game” – 0.8%
- “The Last of Us” – 0.3%
- “Landman” – 0.2%
Our prediction: So many with very high odds. Will we have any upsets tonight? I don’t think so in this category, at least.
Who do you think will win tonight at the 2026 Actor Awards?
Who won tonight? Find out with our LIVE WINNERS RECAP right here!
